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Next 18 months - Path 1 vs Path 2

Updated
4 min read
Next 18 months - Path 1 vs Path 2

Let’s talk about career paths. I need to take 4 courses before I can graduate and I have choice of spreading the load in next 18 months, or 12 months or just 6 months. 6 month likely means Sprited gets near zero focus. 12 month is restrictive. 18 month, I am making a bet.


Path 1 — Graduate ASAP, ride the hot market

  • Compress coursework

  • Enter market while demand for AI talent is high

  • Optimize for:

    • Compensation

    • Wealth accumulation

    • Stability

  • Sprited = nights/weekends, optional upside

  • Identity = senior AI engineer / staff / EM-track

This is high-certainty, high-liquidity path.

Path 2 — 1.5 year Sprited Runway + Graduate

  • One course per term

  • Primary focus = Sprited

  • Clear runway end date (~18 months)

  • Two possible outcomes:

    • Financing / revenue → salary

    • No traction → Job search

  • Identity = founder-builder first, employee second

This is the high-optionality, high-variance path.

Neither is irresponsible, They just optimize different things.


Checks

1. Future Regret

  • If you choose Path 1, will you regret it at 50? → Probably yes.

  • If you choose Path 2 and Sprited fails after 18 months, will you regret it at 50? → Less likely.

2. Recoverability

  • If Path 2 fails, what happens? → I still have MSAI, prior senior experience, real systems and ML work, a concrete founder story. I will re-enter the market slightly later. Not locked out forever.

  • If Path 1 succeeds, great but I will not be able to recreate uninterrupted founder runway again. Golden handcuffs kick in fast.

Recoverability is much higher from Path 2 to Path 1 than the reverse.

3. Market Timing

Yes, the AI job market is hot now. But here’s the uncomfortable truth:

  • You can’t perfectly time markets

  • The “hot window” narrative is often overstated.

  • Strong candidates with real systems experience are employable across cycles.

Meanwhile:

  • Founder time windows are personal, not market-driven.

  • Your energy, clarity, and life alignment right now are rare.

Market timing matters — but less than people think, especially at your level.

4. Financial Downside

Let’s be precise.

Path 1 downside:

  • Low financial risk

  • High opportunity cost

  • Long-term regret risk

Path 2 downside:

  • Explicit, bounded cost: ~18mo, 150k-200k burn

  • Upside: company, financing, or stronger job positioning

Path 2 has a known maximum loss.
Path 1 has an unknown long-term regret cost.


If I am going to take that Path 2, I will only take one course per semester.

  • 2026 Spring - ML

  • 2026 Summer - Ethics in AI

  • 2026 Fall - AI in Healthcare

  • 2027 Spring - Some other course

Or I could also do:

  • 2026 Spring - ML, AI in Healthcare

  • 2026 Summar - Ethics in AI

  • 2026 Fall - Some other course


So, what’s the plan?

The plan is to build Sprited within 18 month timeframe (from 1/13/2026 to 7/13/2027).

During that time, I will take 1 course a semester including Summer.

I will take ML since that is prerequisite to others.


Quarter by Quarter Planning

2026 Q1 - SpriteDX Release (Musk-style) with Accounts and Billing, 10 users.

2026 Q2 - Machi Prototype, VC Outreach, Co-founder Search, 100 users.

2026 Q3 - SpriteDX 1000 users, Machi Online - Proof of Concept, VC outreach.

2026 Q4 - Funding.

2027 Q1 - Machi Release.

2027 Q2 - Machi - 1000 users.


Provisions

  • If big financial event occur, we reevaluate using the spreadsheet.

  • Cap yearly burn (living, etc) at $100k.

  • If no financial promise (verbal funding potential, or revenue) is seen at the end of 2026 Q4, 2027 quarters will accelerate to job hunt.

  • Escape hatch framing: “I took a planned two-year window to build an AI product from first principles while completing my MSAI, then decided to return to industry with much sharper judgment around ML systems.”


Immediate Next Steps

  • Drop 3 out of the courses out of 4 for this semester.

— Sprited Dev 🐛